March
6, 2007
Carlos Gonzalez
Position: RF
DOB: 10/17/1985
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 185
Bats/Throws: L/L
In most organizations there is a clear cut #1. A player who stands out as a supreme talent, the one 'sure thing' in the organization. Generally that player is untouchable in trade talks, there is a spot reserved for him on the pro team, even if he is two or three years away. It's a little different in the talent rich Diamondbacks organization. Last year Carlos Gonzalez topped our FutureBacks 50 ranking of the top 50 prospects in the D'Backs organization despite competition from Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Miguel Montero. All four of those prospects are likely to be starting for the D'Backs on Opening Day. This year Gonzalez faces competition from Justin Upton, Micah Owings, and Greg Smith; not to mention Montero and Young, who still qualify for the list.
The question, of course, is why?
Because as good as all those prospects are, as nearly assured as their futures might be, their ceiling doesn't reach quite as high as the Venezuelan born Gonzalez. Upton has an incredibly combination of tools, but he's never had to fully harness them. Young is faster, and might even have more power, but Gonzalez is four years younger and is developing faster. Owings and Smith are incredible pitchers who might end up being 'front of the rotation' guys, but Gonzalez is a game changer, the type of player who hits #3 in the lineup, the type of player who teams plan around. The type of player who teams decide 'will not beat them,' and then he does anyway.
Batting and Power: Carlos Gonzalez has a nice inside out swing. He drives the ball the other way, which has at times hurt his power numbers. Worse yet when he realized that other players were putting up the bigger home run totals he fell into the trap of trying to jerk the ball. In homer happy Hi-A Lancaster, where Gonzalez spent the majority of his 2006 he went through slumps where he found himself trying to pull the ball. The coaches noticed too, and talked to Gonzalez about making adjustments. He did, and it impressed the scouts.
"You would literally see the change happen over night," one scout said, "he would ground out to second three times and the coaches would talk to him about using the whole field, and then next night he'd go three for four with two doubles the other way."
Not that he's a finished product.
"The only thing I didn't like was that three weeks later he'd do the same thing for a couple games. He's so young you kind of expect it, but what I want to see is him put together three solid months without doing that. When he does that, watch out, he's going to be pretty unstoppable."
'Unstoppable' is not a word scouts like to throw around, but with Gonzalez it could be the one that is most fitting.
Baserunning and Speed: Gonzalez has what we like to refer to as 'sneaky speed.' He's certainly not blazing, but he does have plenty of wheels for his natural position, right field and he did swipe 16 bags last season. His baserunning tends to be somewhat timid, and occasionally he missed opportunities to take that extra base. Still one wonders if that just isn't conditioning that comes from hitting 3rd in the order most of the time. Why try to take third when you've got two home run hitters coming up from behind. He has a lot to learn, but really its a matter of him getting comfortable.
Defense: Carlos Gonzalez has the best arm of any outfielder in the entire Diamondbacks system. That's high praise, especially considering he held that title when Carlos Quentin was still considered a prospect.
"His arm is kind of rediculous," one rival scout said of Gonzalez in '06, "he's incredibly accurate no matter whether he's got his feet set or not."
But when he sets his feet watch out.
"When he sets his feet nobody wants to run on them, even when they should, because if he really gets behind one, you're gone. It's such an effortless motion too, I'm a little surprised the D'Backs never considered putting him on the mound. You see the way Ichiro throws, where he seems to explode, Gonzalez is completely different. If you watch him playing long toss before a game, and then watch him make a throw to keep the winning run from scoring in the bottom of the ninth, the motion and the effort looks exactly the same."
Even more impressive is that this offseason Gonzalez started toying with centerfield during his stint in the Venezuelan league.
"He's seen the effect that kind of thing had on Quentin," a scout who watched Gonzalez in the Venezuelan league says, referring to Carlos Quentin's short lived Triple-A stint in center, "he realizes even if he's never going to play center on a consistent basis doing it every once in awhile will make him a better overall outfielder."
Projection: The wealth of Diamondbacks outfield prospects means that the D'Backs have no reason to rush Gonzalez, but Director of Player Development AJ Hinch is also quick to point out they won't hold him back either.
"We have a luxury because guys like Chris Young and Carlos Quentin are ready right now, but when Carlos is ready, he'll be in the big leagues. He's a player you find a place to play."
Statements like that are fueling speculation that unless Conor Jackson starts showing more traditional first-base power this season he might be moved in order to create another spot for one of the talented outfielders in the D'Backs system that include Gonzalez, Cyle Hankerd, Scott Hairston and Chris Carter. There is no way Gonzalez is moving to the infield, but he very well might move Quentin to left field by 2008. In an order that should feature a ton of talented power hitters Gonzalez almost certainly will settle into the #3 spot in the order, likely ahead of Young and Quentin.
Major League Clone: Gary Sheffield
ETA: Gonzalez will start '07 in Double-A Mobile, and a good year might get him a cup of coffee in September. In '08 he'll challenge (especially with the D'Backs signing Eric Byrnes to just a one year deal) for a Major League roster spot, and by 2009 you could see an outfield that featured Gonzalez in right, Young in center, and Quentin in left. |
